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Mercor

Local Political Expert – Elections Forecasting, Political Risk

Mercor

. Author point-in-time political reports and forecasts from a stated evidence cutoff .

Posted 10/17/2026contractRemote • Iowa • United States, CanadaSeniorLead💰 $100 - $200 per hourWebsite

Core Competencies

Role fit
Core Competencies

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Demonstrates extensive expertise in political analysis and forecasting, with a strong focus on polling literacy and causal event analysis. Proven ability to produce expert-level reports and make live judgments on electoral outcomes based on current political dynamics.

Highest-signal resume keywords
Political AnalysisPolling LiteracyCausal Event AnalysisExpert-Level ReportingState-Level Political Knowledge

ATS Keywords

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Applicant Tracking System Keywords

Tip: use these terms in your resume and cover letter to boost ATS matches.

Hard Skills
Political ForecastingPolling JudgmentsMarket-Implied Odds AnalysisModel-Generated Analysis ReviewEvidence-Based Reasoning
Industry Keywords
Iowa ElectionsStatewide ContestsPolitical Risk AnalysisElectorate KnowledgeCampaign Analytics

About the role

Key responsibilities & impact
  • Author point-in-time political reports and forecasts from a stated evidence cutoff
  • Make and document directional judgments about polling, win probabilities, and market-implied odds
  • Explain the causal mechanism behind an event's expected political and market impact
  • Review model-generated analyses and grade them against a personal expert standard
  • Produce expert-authored forecasting and research data for evaluating and improving AI models on political and financial analysis

Requirements

What you’ll need
  • Hands-on experience on specific races in Iowa, including current or upcoming Senate, governor, or statewide contests, or recent cycles in the same state
  • On-the-ground knowledge of the electorate, candidates, and local political environment
  • Experience as a university political scientist, state or regional pollster, state-level campaign or party analytics staff member, or state political-risk analyst
  • Record of making live judgments about polling, win probabilities, or odds in relevant races, not retrospective commentary
  • Strong polling literacy and causal event analysis
  • Typically 8+ years of direct experience, or unusually strong evidence of equivalent performance
  • Experience with current or recent US races in the state covered
  • Ability to reason from a stated evidence cutoff without hindsight, data leakage, confidential information, or material non-public information
  • Must not be an H1-B or STEM OPT candidate

Benefits

Comp & perks
  • Fully remote role
  • Flexible own schedule
  • Projects may be extended, shortened, or concluded early depending on needs and performance
  • Weekly payments via Stripe or Wise based on services rendered
  • Competitive pay
  • Collaboration with leading researchers
  • Opportunity to help shape next-generation AI systems
  • Reasonable accommodations upon request