Local Political Expert – Elections Forecasting, Political Risk

Mercor

. Author point-in-time political reports and forecasts from a stated evidence cutoff .

Posted 10/18/2026contractRemote • Iowa • United States, CanadaSeniorLead💰 $100 - $200 per hourWebsite

Core Competencies

Role fit

Core Competencies

Use this summary to align your resume positioning with the role.

Demonstrates expertise in political analysis and forecasting, with a strong focus on polling literacy and causal event analysis. Proven ability to make live judgments on electoral outcomes and contribute to AI model evaluations based on real-time data.

Highest-signal resume keywords

Political AnalysisPolling LiteracyCausal Event AnalysisU.S. Swing States ExperienceIndependent Contractor

ATS Keywords

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Applicant Tracking System Keywords

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Hard Skills

Political ReportingForecastingJudgment on PollingMarket-Implied Odds AnalysisModel Review and GradingData EvaluationResearch Data ContributionPoint-in-Time ReasoningElectoral KnowledgeLive Judgment Making

Industry Keywords

U.S. ElectionsState-Level CampaignsPolitical Risk AnalysisPolling AnalysisElectorate KnowledgeSenate ContestsGovernor ContestsStatewide ContestsPolitical EnvironmentIndependent Expert Standard

About the role

Key responsibilities & impact

Author point-in-time political reports and forecasts from a stated evidence cutoff
Make and document directional judgments about polling, win probabilities, and market-implied odds
Explain the causal mechanism behind an event’s expected political and market impact
Review model-generated analyses and grade them against an independent expert standard
Contribute expert-authored forecasting and research data used to evaluate and improve AI models
Complete projects according to changing business needs and performance expectations

Requirements

What you’ll need

Hands-on experience on specific races in U.S. swing states, including current or upcoming Senate, governor, or statewide contests, or recent cycles in the same state
On-the-ground knowledge of the electorate, candidates, and local political environment
Experience as a university political scientist, state or regional pollster, state-level campaign or party analytics staff member, or state political-risk analyst
Record of making live judgments about polling, win probabilities, or odds in relevant races; retrospective commentary alone is insufficient
Strong polling literacy and causal event analysis
Typically 8+ years of direct experience, or unusually strong evidence of equivalent performance
Applicants should have worked on a current or recent U.S. race in the state they would cover
Point-in-time reasoning without hindsight, data leakage, confidential information, or material non-public information
Must be able to work as an independent contractor
H1-B and STEM OPT candidates are not supported
Ability to cover Iowa; location requirements include Canada or the USA

Benefits

Comp & perks

Fully remote role
Flexible schedule; work can be completed on your own schedule
Weekly payments via Stripe or Wise based on services rendered
Projects may be extended, shortened, or concluded early depending on needs and performance
Competitive pay
Collaboration with leading researchers
Work on projects training and enhancing AI systems
Reasonable accommodations available upon request
Up to $1,000 referral payment for each successful referral, subject to referral limits